It’s fine, I get that this is “sneer club”, where being a dick is more valued than being logical. Like, if you had more detailed critique than “no, you can’t do that”, maybe this would be a conversation worth having with you.

I’m not a fanboy or necessarrily agree with his argument, but you’re seriously missing the point of what he’s trying to say. He’s just talking about how big, mediapathic events can unduly influence people’s perception of probability and risk. He doesn’t need actual real world numbers to show how this works, he’s just demonstrating how the math works and how the numbers change. He isn’t trying to convince stupid people of anything, they aren’t his target audience and they will never think this way.