BernieDoesIt

Pft, that’s easy. I can get to 99.99% confidence that 54 is a prime number!

I think gpt-4 is like the data from the Chicago pile. That data was enough to convince the domain experts then a nuke was going to work to the point they didn’t test Fat Man, you believe not.

Whoa whoa whoa there! I’m the contrarian that thinks that gpt is clearly more that just plagiarizing things, but it’s still just a step above Mad Libs in terms of intelligence. It’s not clear that you could get it to be smarter than a goldfish, let alone a human being. It’s just really good at stringing words together in a way that sounds good.

Part of a balanced breakfast!

since you claim you can’t measure this even as a thought experiment, there’s nothing to discus

You’re going to have to lose the LessWrongy superstition that you have to be able to assign numbers to something for it to be meaningful. Sometimes when talking about this big, messy, complicated world, your error bars are so large that assigning any number at all would be meaningless and lead to error. That doesn’t mean you can’t talk qualitatively about what you do know or believe.

Doing real work is hard. Making things up is so much simpler.

That’s all that keeps TESLAREC from being a contender.

Honestly I can’t help but interpret this as “if Scott was neurotypical then none of this would have happened to him, so it’s all his fault.”

I imagine a world much like this one all the time!

Poor Yud’s Bayes must have broken.